Treasury market dropped approximately two basis points across the curve on Thursday, as investors seek direction from upcoming economic data after the Federal Reserve provided limited guidance on its policy trajectory.
The 10-year Treasury yield settled at 4.50%, marking a significant decline from last week’s 4.62%, while the dollar weakened against most G-10 currencies. This movement comes at a critical juncture, with markets anticipating slower US GDP growth data and a potential uptick in the Fed’s preferred inflation measure.
The uncertainty is compounded by President Trump’s policy initiatives, leading the Fed to maintain a cautious stance. Meanwhile, the European context presents a stark contrast, with the ECB poised for a 25-basis-point cut amid economic contraction in Germany and France.
Markets are now pricing in nearly four ECB rate cuts through year-end, reflecting growing concerns about eurozone economic health and highlighting the diverging paths of major central banks.